China’s economy recorded a year-on-year GDP growth of 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, reaching RMB 94.97 trillion (approximately US$13.33 trillion) at constant prices. The quarterly growth rates were 5.3% in Q1, 4.7% in Q2, and 4.6% in Q3. This reflects a steady recovery amidst global uncertainties and internal restructuring. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the economic performance across various sectors and key indicators.
Sectoral Growth Analysis
Primary Industry
The value-added output of the primary sector stood at RMB 5.77 trillion (US$790.9 billion), growing by 3.4% year-on-year.
Growth was driven by advancements in agricultural productivity and investments in modern farming techniques.
Secondary Industry
The secondary sector, including manufacturing and construction, contributed RMB 36.14 trillion (US$4.95 trillion), a robust 5.4% increase from the previous year.
Industrial production was a key driver, with significant contributions from high-tech and green industries.
Tertiary Industry
The services sector, the largest contributor to the economy, accounted for RMB 53.07 trillion (US$7.27 trillion), reflecting a 4.7% rise.
Growth in services was buoyed by financial services, healthcare, and technology-driven solutions.
Detailed Examination of Key Economic Indicators
Industrial Output
The value added by industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year. High-tech manufacturing outperformed traditional sectors, signaling a structural shift toward innovation-led growth.
Retail Consumption
Retail sales of consumer goods totalled RMB 35.36 trillion (US$4.84 trillion), growing 3.3% year-on-year. While physical retail showed moderate growth, online retail sales saw a double-digit increase, underscoring the evolving consumer behaviour.
Fixed Asset Investment
Fixed asset investments rose by 3.4% year-on-year. When real estate is excluded, the growth rate was a more robust 7.7%. Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing were key contributors, highlighting government efforts to boost long-term economic resilience.
Trade Performance
The total trade value reached RMB 32.33 trillion (US$4.43 trillion), up 5.3%.
Exports: RMB 18.61 trillion (US$2.55 trillion), a 6.2% increase.
Imports: RMB 13.71 trillion (US$1.88 trillion), a 4.1% rise.
This surplus demonstrates China’s continued strength in global trade despite international challenges, including geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Inflation remained controlled, with the CPI increasing by a modest 0.3% year-on-year. This is higher than the first half’s 0.1% rise, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand.
Labour Market
The average urban unemployment rate was 5.1%, slightly down from last year’s 5.3%. Efforts to stimulate job creation, particularly in high-tech and service sectors, appear to be yielding results.
Income Growth
Nationwide, per capita disposable income reached RMB 30,941 (US$4,238.5), reflecting a nominal growth of 5.2%. Real income growth, adjusted for inflation, stood at 4.9%, contributing to a stable improvement in living standards.
Broader Implications
China’s steady economic performance highlights its resilience amid global headwinds such as geopolitical conflicts, trade barriers, and sluggish global demand. Domestically, the focus on high-tech industries, green energy, and services is reshaping the economic landscape.
Policy measures, including infrastructure investments and fiscal stimulus, have played a vital role in sustaining growth. However, challenges such as a struggling real estate sector and uneven recovery across regions require continued attention.
Conclusion
China’s 4.8% GDP growth in the first three-quarters of 2024 underlines the economy’s recovery trajectory, driven by industrial innovation, controlled inflation, and rising consumer spending. While global and domestic challenges persist, the shift towards a more sustainable and innovation-led economic model positions China for long-term stability and growth
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